By Ingo Plöger
The contemporary world has built an enormous framework of national, regional, multilateral agreements that regulate international trade relations, investments, communications and so on. The current scenario shows that there have been several ruptures in these understandings, with the reduction in importance of the WTO, the Kyoto Agreement, the WHO, among many others, that the current situation is one of widespread confusion, due to the lack of reliable rules, as recently expressed by the former Secretary General of the WTO, Ambassador Roberto Azevedo at the 23rd ABAG Congress.
Entropy entered the international system, generating disorder and unbalancing the game of interests and agreements. The fact of weakening multilateral organizations, and no longer having regulatory forces operating, strengthened the savagery of those who have strength.
The USA, whose interest in remaining at the economic forefront was opposed to China’s ascent in the WTO, included friendly forces – friendshoring – and safeshoring – in its priorities, while the European Union established rules for the whole world about what is convenient and right around climate change through its – Green Deal -. China, with its reborn global Industrial Policy, established opportunistic trade and investment priorities with those who they could best interact with, and reestablished a New BRICs Plus, in which it is the preponderant protagonist. Meanwhile, Russia, taking advantage of the post-Covid recovery, is advancing its strategy of force, to recover spaces of the former Soviet Union.
The establishment of this unregulated entropy is of interest to all of those mentioned, as they will establish through their vectors of interest and power, new constellations of relationships and advantages, which after this fragmentation, they know, will come a new effort to reestablish multilateralism. This however will start from these new realities, and thus the new order will have contemplated the structures that they are forming. It could take years for this to be reestablished, or very little time if there is a global catastrophe that forces everyone to sit around the big global table again.
We honestly don’t know who to root for. The crystal-clear fragmentation is not only an international phenomenon, but we observe the same in aspects of national and even community policies. We also observe a weakening of democracies and a resurgence of authoritarian and monopolistic, monocratic regimes where the State assumes much more present dimensions. International relations take place in the directions of convenience and principles. When both are out of balance, conflicts of all kinds arise, and solutions become very difficult. And it is in this situation that we ask ourselves:
Quo vadis Latin America?
A continent that is mostly democratic, where socialism is in crisis because left-wing governments and parties do not understand how much democracy is fundamental and necessary, and at the same time as the new right, it tramples on institutionality and good rules to install a regime of law and order opposing democratic governance. Probably other democratic continents are in the same situation, starting with parties that have lost the support of their voters and they are looking for their point in the authenticity of the extreme. But despite this “disorder” there is a trend in which Latin America presents competencies that are recognized as strengths. The strength of Agribusiness, which shows its contribution to food security, especially in animal and vegetable proteins, or energy security with an incredible participation of sustainable ones, and the tropical power due to photosynthesis factors three times greater than other climates, resulting in the strength climate environment. A highly diverse but united society. As they are decades-old democracies, the insertion of diversities and credibility in the processes offer an essential substance in the composition of future alliances, which is trust.
When agreements do not become more efficient, what sets in are crises of growth, trust and hope.
Reestablishing hope is through the combination of alliances. The alliance symbolized by the ring represents a union of different people for common goals, they form a pact, a coalition a fusion. It is time to change the way we think about agreements, to seek alliances that bring together common objectives in adversity. Hope grows when we realize that alliances that seek a good and constructive purpose are established within the competitive environment. Latin America has many issues where alliances can thrive and that can create vision and hope, even in controversy. Our continent’s solutions in the food production chain, to reduce poverty, hunger and feed important global segments is one of these aspects. As we have competitive renewable energies, in this continental integration, attracting productive investments to produce sustainable products is another option. And in the forces of the power of the tropics, Bio competitiveness unites us in climate change.
The creative dynamics of diversity combined with openness to digital social technologies form high-impact bottom-up solutions. These alliances can already be seen at the preparatory meetings of the G20, next year at the BRIC’s+ meeting and at COP 30. The thematic protagonism will be ours, even without the power shoring of others, but having this soft power feeding hope is, and It will be our great strength.
In this way, we will undoubtedly be a relevant feeder of hope, building strong alliances based on transparency, and on reliability, building credibility.
The result of building the alliance on hope with credibility will be prosperity.
*Ingo Plöger is entrepreneur and President of the Brazilian Chapter of Ceal
