MARKET INTELLIGENCE
2015 GDP Growth Forecast

The latest projections made by the IMF show that a modest recovery is to be expected for Latin America in 2015 (2.2 percent). This forecast is founded on improving exports and the recovery of investment. However, “risks remain tilted to the downside as many economies struggle to find new engines of sustainable growth in an environment of stagnant commodity prices and more binding supply bottlenecks,” the IMF stated in its 2014 World Economic Outlook report.

Activity among the region’s commodity exporters might weaken with negative external demand shocks, such as a sharper-than-expected investment slowdown in China.
An abrupt rise in U.S. interest rates could prompt a replay of the mid-2013 financial turmoil, which would tighten financial conditions and depress confidence further.
A sharp rise in oil prices would have an overall negative effect on the region’s growth (especially some Caribbean and Central American economies), despite benefiting a small number of net hydrocarbon exporters (Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, and Venezuela).
Higher fuel prices could also intensify inflation or budgetary pressures (owing to large subsidies in some cases).

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