Murder, Headlines and Statistics

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Headlines on Latin American crime ripple across the page and the screen: “Caracas: Murder Capital of the World” or “Ciudad Juarez: Capital of Crime.” The September 2008 report in Foreign Policy on Caracas said there were 130 homicides per 100,000 people, while the Barcelona daily La Vanguardia reported the exact same rate for Ciudad Juarez in an October 22 story. But even as these reports of killings lead the news in a number of countries, governments fight back with their own statistics. Venezuelan authorities have reported the murder rate has decreased.

In Mexico, officials ranging from President Felipe Calderón Hinojosa to Ambassador to Washington Arturo Sarukhan are quick to point out the New Orleans murder rate of 64 homicides per 100,000 people is higher than Mexico’s overall rate of 26 killings per 100,000 people – or a recent figure of 11 murders per 100,000. In Colombia, where the demilitarization of paramilitaries has helped decrease killings, there are still questions. The national police put the number of killings per 100,000 at 45, considerably lower than Pan-American Health Organization statistic of 61 per 100,000. “You basically can’t trust the numbers,” said Gimena Sánchez, senior associate for Colombia with the Washington Office on Latin America.

One problem is that crime statistics are very sketchy. Experts on crime prefer to compare levels of violence based on homicides instead of theft and assault because nearly all homicides are reported. Still, there are considerable differences between statistics compiled by national police forces and the Pan-American Health Organization, World Health Organization or other groups.

Colombia, Jamaica, Venezuela and El Salvador still have some of the highest murder rates in the world, but countries like Bolivia, Chile, Cuba, Haiti, Peru and Uruguay have rates of one to three homicides per 100,000 people, lower than the United States.

Countries themselves can have high homicide rates in some cities and low overall crime rates. Perception is everything. Despite shocking mass killings that receive nonstop coverage in the United States, the average U.S. homicide rate of about six per 100,000 is better than most countries in Central America, as well as Colombia, Venezuela and Mexico.
Andrew R. Morrison, an expert on crime with the Inter-American Development Bank has traced violence in the region in part to inequality – like the anger of drivers in a lane of stopped traffic while cars in the next lane move forward. Poverty matters but so does income distribution, according to studies cited by Morrison. The cessation of guerrilla wars dispersed weapons among the populations in countries like El Salvador, also contributing to crime, according to recent research. Gang violence is a major factor, too, especially in Central America.

Besides the human cost, violence is expensive. Estimates of prevention and justice range from 4 percent to more than 10 percent of the gross domestic product, according to Morrison’s research. Violence can affect international investment decisions, or, in the case of Colombia, extra-judicial killings are cited as an obstacle to U.S. congressional approval of a free-trade agreement.

But when violence becomes the story, statistics can be brushed aside. In Mexico, despite the wave of drug-related killings, the crime rate has fallen from 37 homicides per 100,000 people in 1997 to 26 per 100,000 in 2008, according to the Citizen’s Institute on Security Studies.

Colegio de Mexico researcher Fernando Escalante pointed out in a January article in the magazine Nexos that there are no statistics backing up dire warnings that Mexico’s rate of violence had surpassed that experienced in Colombia during its worst years of bloodshed.